Grossman’s Gambling Guide-NFL Week 5

Another dogshit week last week with the Texans completely forgetting how to play football and the Seahawks being quite a bit better than I thought they were. I have struggled quite a bit in the first quarter of the season but we will get things turned around. I vow to end the bullshit right now and end the season way above .500!

Overall ATS: 4-8

Overall O/U: 1-4

Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans -4

What is the fix for a struggling offense? A defense that almost never pressures the QB and does not force turnovers! That is exactly what the Atlanta Falcons defense does. Through 4 games they only have 5 sacks and they have only forced 3 turnovers. Houston’s biggest issue on offense is the protection Deshaun Watson gets. When Watson has a clean pocket he is completing 72% of his passes, good for eighth in the league. Watson has not had too many clean pockets to throw out of as he has been hit 32 times so far this year. Lucky for Watson, the Falcons have a shitty front 7 and he should have plenty of clean pockets to throw from this week. The defense will force some red zone TOs from Matty Ice because that is just what he does and the Texans should pick up a much needed win.

Pick: Houston Texans -4

New England Patriots -16 @ Washington Redskins

The Pats have are 4-0 with 3 of those wins coming by more than 16 points. The only one by less was against a real good defense in Buffalo. The Redskins DO NOT have a good defense. They also do not have a good offense, and now add in the fact that Colt McCoy is starting for them and fans in the DC area are fucking praying the Nationals beat the Dodgers because the Redskins are fucking awful! They are already fucking up the development of Haskins and Jay Gruden is more concerned with laying the pipe on some chicks at a bar than he is with winning football games. I’m surprised this spread hasn’t jumped to 22-23 so get it while it’s low!

Pick: NE Patriots -16

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys -3

I feel like the Packers are preparing to get gashed on the ground by Zeke. They are horrible at stopping the run, but they are one of the best at limiting the pass. They are coming off a long week while the Cowboys are coming off of a tough Sunday Night loss in New Orleans. Green Bay’s defense has had time to rest and make the necessary adjustments to limit guys like Cooper and Gallup. The offense though, will be without Davante Adams this week. Dallas has been susceptible to the pass even though they have not played anyone who has close to an elite passing game (Giants, Redskins, Dolphins, Saints led by Teddy). This is their first true test and it’s as tough as it gets with Aaron Rodgers on the other side of the ball. Look for MVS to have a big game and Jimmy Graham to have a couple of big catches.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +3

Bonus Monday Night Pick
Cleveland Browns @ SF 49ers -4

With the AFC North wide open, I really see Cleveland making a run starting with last week’s blowout of Baltimore. San Fran has not beaten anyone yet and the offense still has no clue what it’s identity is. Jimmy G. is getting paid, but he kind of sucks and they are using 3-4 RBs every week. On the other side of things, the SF defense is legit, but so it this Browns offense. As long as the Browns realize that Nick Chubb is a fucking star they will score a shit ton of points. If Chubb is carrying the load it opens up everything for Baker to pick apart secondaries using Landry and Beckham. I like the direction this Browns team is moving right now!

Pick: Cleveland Browns +4

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 44

The Ravens are second in the league in scoring this year only behind the Chiefs through 4 weeks. The Steelers are quite a bit further down the list but that is deflated by their opening game in which they only scored 3 points. Both defenses have looked really fucking bad for most of the season as well. The one exception is Pittsburgh’s defense last week but that was against Cincy and we all know that Cincy fucking blows. This should hit by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Pick: Over 44

Loved the board this week! Follow me if you want to win and fuck you if you don’t!

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