Grossman’s Gambling Guide-CFB Week 7

What a slate of fucking games we have on tap this week! LSU-Florida & Texas-OU are both MUST WATCH match-ups! Going back to last week though it was another ehhhhh week. West Virginia missed covering by half a fucking point, Iowa played their worst game in the last 5 fucking years of the entire program, and Khalil Tate came back from the dead to shit on Colorado. Bad beats left and fucking right, but I got kinda lucky with the scoop and score for UGA to cover that game late so it goes both ways.

Overall ATS: 18-17

Overall O/U: 12-9

#11 Texas vs. #6 Oklahoma -10 (Cotton Bowl, Dallas TX)

What a fucking showdown this is going to be! I think I speak for everyone when I say that I have been looking forward to this game more than any other game since last year. It is always a great fucking game and this one might be the best in a while!

Now everyone knows both teams bring explosive offenses into this one, so that begs one question. Which defense will get the big stop in the 4th quarter?

Now everyone has been real high on Oklahoma and their offense all year long, which is for the most part justified, but they have played a god awful fucking schedule so far! They have played one team with a winning record and that was Texas Tech at home. They have not played anyone that was ever expected to compete with them. Jalen Hurts has been fucking balling but it really has not been so difficult for him.

Texas on the other hand played a real close game with LSU earlier in the year and more recently have beaten WVU and OkState who are both teams with winning records.

Sam Ehlinger played his first real flawed game last week, but they picked up the W in Morgantown. Sam will absolutely need to be better if Texas wants to win this game. The Longhorns also have 3 RBs with over 50 carries and all of them are averaging over 4.5 YPC. Yes they will need to score points, but the easiest way for Texas to win this game will be to run the shit out of the ball and keep the ball out of Jalen Hurts’s hands. Oklahoma is giving up 150 YPG on the ground but they have not faced a team with the rushing attack that UT has.

On the other side of the ball, Jalen just needs to do what he has been doing all season long. Texas got gashed by Joe Burrow and LSU and I think OU has even more playmakers than LSU does.

I did however, watch Texas shut down a top 3 RB and top 3 WR against OkState and I truly believe that this defense is better than most people think. They gave up a shit ton of yards against LSU which makes their defensive yardage a little lopsided, but they seemed to have figured it out since then.

I think the Longhorns defense makes enough plays to at the very least keep it closer than 10. I actually like them to win this game outright as well so hit that fucking +300! HOOK ‘EM!

Pick: Texas +10/+300

#7 Florida @ #5 LSU -13

Florida shut the haters up for a week, but now it’s time for them to try and prove themselves again. Kyle Trask has given this team a new look and the entire fucking team has rallied behind him. The Tigers are a different beast than Auburn though. It’s not a freshman on the other side of the ball this week, it’s Heisman candidate Joey Fuckin Burrow!

Burrow is second in the nation in passing yards and he could easily be considered the front-runner for the Heisman right now. LSU has all kinds of playmakers on the outside as well and this will obviously be the best offense Florida has faced so far.

On the flip side, this will be, by far, the best defense LSU has faced all year. Florida has ballhawks all over the field! They picked off Bo Nix 3 times last week and the defensive line eventually got to him a couple times as well. They are all freakishly athletic and it is going to be a hell of a game!

LSU’s defense played great last week against a good offense in Utah St. but no one seems to have an answer for Kyle Trask right now and he is going to give them some trouble. I REALLLYYYYYYY like Florida to win this game, but I’m not near brave enough to take the money line on this one. Covering the 13 points will be easy money though!

Pick: Florida +13

South Carolina @ #3 Georgia -23.5

Georgia actually looked vulnerable for a bit last weekend against Tennessee, but South Carolina ain’t the fucking team to expose them. They fucking blow! I though earlier in the year the freshman QB was the fix, and don’t get me wrong, he is real talented, but he won’t help this week. Heading into Athens is going to be a nightmare for Will Muschamp and Ryan Hilinski. The defense is also allowing 140 Rush YPG and D’Andre Swift is going to go crazy!

Pick: Georgia -23.5

Washington St. @ #18 Arizona St. -1.5

This is probably the biggest fucking sucker bet I have ever taken but, the last time we saw Washington St. playing they were getting blown the fuck out by Utah. Following that game Mike Leach pretty much just shit on the entire team by calling them fat, dumb, happy, and entitled. Following that loss Washington State had a bye and I expect them to come out fired the fuck up! ASU has played 1 team who likes to air it out and score points and that was Colorado. Steven Montez tore their asses up going for 340 and 3 TDs. Anthony Gordon is going to give the Sun Devils a similar fate and Washington St. gets back on track!

Pick: Washington State +1.5

Michigan St. @ #8 Wisconsin -11

Wisconsin is coming off a blowout win and MSU is coming off a road blowout loss to OSU. The bad news for Sparty is it will not get any easier this week. After giving up 175 yards to JK Dobbins they get to try and stop Jonathan Taylor this week and it’s just not going to fucking happen. MSU has been one of the more inconsistent teams in the country this year but I don’t see a scenario where they keep this game close. Jonathan for 220+ and 3 more TDs!

Pick: Wisconsin -11

Iowa St. @ West Virginia O/U 53.5

Brock Purdy finally got the Cyclone offense moving last week leading ISU to 49 points in a win over TCU. West Virginia’s defense did not look great last week and after a hard fought loss last week I expect a huge defensive letdown from them this week. I do expect the offense to step up though to try and keep them in the game.

Pick: Over 53.5

Texas Tech @ #22 Baylor O/U 58

I really don’t know why, but Big 12 games in the 50s always make my eyes jump. I feel like I would be a complete pussy to not bet the over on a Big 12 game in the 50s. Both teams are averaging over 31 PPG and even though Baylor has a solid defense this over will hit by the end of Q3.

Pick: Over 58

#15 Utah @ Oregon St. O/U 59.5

Both teams are averaging over 30 PPG but the situation of this game makes picking the over a sucker pick. In a tough road conference game, offense usually does not travel, defense travels. Utah only gives up 14 PPG and they will use that defense to try and win this game.

Pick: Under 59.5

There you have it folks! Let the fucking games begin!

Leave a Reply