It was almost a perfect week, until the Browns completely shit the bed on MNF. I am not officially quitting the Browns, but a little break seems to be in my best interest for now. The Texans, Pats, and Packers all covered with ease while the over for the Steelers/Ravens game hit late so it turned out to be a real good bounce back week anyway. The board this week has a few traps on it, but we are staying the fuck away from those. One of those games is Cle-Sea and I know Seattle is worlds better than Cleveland, but Cleveland is one of those teams that every time we doubt them, they will show us how good they can be. Fade that one, and fade the Falcons-Cards game. Do not fade these though!
Overall ATS: 7-9
Overall O/U: 2-4
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings -3
Minnesota needs the run game to be working for the pass game to be successful. The bad news for them is that there is no one in the league better at stopping the run than the Eagles. Philly has been susceptible to the pass, but I don’t trust Captain Kirk for shit if the Vikings can’t run the ball. Philly has started getting it together the last couple of weeks and I really like them moving forward and I still like Wentz to win MVP.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3
New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5
The Saints may be without Alvin Kamara which means Latavius Murray will take over lead duties. Either way, I think Teddy has a solid game against a Jags defense that has not been great the last 2 weeks. Denver almost beat them and then Carolina dropped 34 on them last week. The Saints have really rallied behind Teddy and I expect Michael Thomas to have another huge game and look for the defense to have a big game as well.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +1.5
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
Look the Texans have a solid team, but let’s not forget they just beat the Falcons at home. The Falcons are one of the worst defensive teams in football. The Chiefs just lost a tough one at home to the Colts in primetime. Do you really think Patrick Mahome is going to come out and not have the Chiefs offense ready to run through a fucking wall?! Tyreek might be back but either way I like the Chiefs BIG here!
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
Bonus Money-line Value Bet
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets +275
I know the Jets have looked awful and they are winless. The defense though, has not been too terrible considering what the offense has done. They are top 10 in rush YPG allowed and that will bode well this week against Zeke. Then on the other side of the ball, they will have a healthy Sam Darnold for the first time this year. I actually really like the Jets to pull this upset, plus at +275 and playing at home there is some really good value in throwing a unit or two on them.
Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins O/U 42
This may be the worst game in the history of the NFL, so you obviously have to throw some money on it to make it watchable! I will never trust either of these teams to cover a spread even if it’s against each other. What I do know though is that both defenses are fucking awful! Both offenses are awful too, but bad offense can beat bad defense. Josh Rosen is most likely going to have his best game as a pro and the Case Keenum-Terry McLaurin connection is back!
Pick: Over 42