Fantasy Points Allowed By Position-Analysis

Week 1, and along with it, fantasy football, is officially in the books and life seems to be about as normal as it has been for the entirety of 2020. Football is back which means the Browns and Jets look like abominations again, while the Chiefs and Ravens look like the class of the NFL. I would have like to have gotten this content out sooner, but it has been a busy week. Starting next week we will have content on the following days:

Tuesday-Waiver Wire Targets
Wednesday-Snap/Target Analysis
Thursday-Fantasy Points Against by Position

We missed on the first two this week, but we are coming in fucking hot in Week 2. We are also going to be dropping TWO podcast episodes per week starting after Week 2 so make sure to check those out wherever you listen to your pods.

Quarterbacks

*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros.*

1New England Patriots8.4417Denver Broncos19.36
2Cincinnati Bengals9.0218Las Vegas Raiders19.4
3Baltimore Ravens10.8619Indianapolis Colts20.82
4Dallas Cowboys11.520New York Giants22.06
5Buffalo Bills12.221New Orleans Saints22.46
6Philadelphia Eagles12.8222Green Bay Packers22.76
7Tennessee Titans13.1423Kansas City Chiefs 22.82
8Carolina Panthers13.5624Detroit Lions24.28
9Tampa Bay Buccaneers14.425Seattle Seahawks24.9
10Washington Football Team1526Miami Dolphins25.7
11Jacksonville Jaguars16.8227Houston Texans26.44
12Chicago Bears17.1828San Francisco 49ers27.3
13Los Angeles Chargers17.3229Cleveland Browns27.5
14Los Angeles Rams17.6430New York Jets28.18
15Arizona Cardinals19.2631Minnesota Vikings30.76
16Pittsburgh Steelers19.3632Atlanta Falcons31.78

Fantasy Analysis

One of my biggest takeaways from this table is that Atlanta’s defense may be worse than any of us ever thought. Pete Carroll finally decided to let Russ cook and look what happened. He is your QB1 for Week 1. Any QB against the Falcons is going to be a very streamable every week option, if not a top 10 play every single week.

The Patriots and Ravens are right where I expected them to be, and that is where you will see them for most of the season. Bill still has some tricks up his sleeves, so watch out for that defense all season long.

Since the Ravens traded for Marcus Peters, they have been one of the best pass defenses in the league, especially for fantasy purposes. They get teams in negative game scripts and they still don’t allow any garbage time stats.

Start your QB expecting 25+ points against the Jets every single fucking week. Josh Allen would have been QB1 overall had it not been for his two fumbles. The Jets secondary is rough, the pass rush is non- existent and the linebackers are slow.

Josh Allen had himself a day against the Jets in Week 1.
Josh Allen finished as the overall QB3 even in a week that he lost 2 fumbles.

Anomalies

Minnesota’s secondary is bad, but the defense as a whole is not as bad as Aaron Rodgers made them look on Sunday. I don’t expect Minnesota to be top 10 against QBs, but don’t start your QB expecting 25+ points every week.

Dallas and Carolina are at the top of this list, but they will not stay there very long. In both games, they got dominated on the ground and the QBs were not asked to do much. You can confidently start your QB every week against both of these defenses.

Seattle gave up the 8th most points to their opposing QB in Week 1, but don’t expect that on a week to week basis. There may not be a better garbage time QB in the history of the NFL than Matt Ryan. About
2/3 of his yards and both of his touchdowns came with the Falcons trailing by 2+ scores.

Running Backs

Fantasy Points for RBs in Week 1 always need to be taken with a grain of salt. So that means, we need to take what defenses did against RBs with a grain of salt.

*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros 0.5 PPR*

1Washington Football Team9.617Philadelphia Eagles20.7
2Los Angeles Chargers10.418Cincinnati Bengals21.6
3Indianapolis Colts11.119Miami Dolphins23.3
4Pittsburgh Steelers11.620Houston Texans24
5New Orleans Saints12.321Chiacgo Bears24.1
6Detroit Lions13.622San Francisco 49ers25.5
7New York Giants14.823Tampa Bay Buccaneers25.6
8Denver Broncos15.624Las Vegas Raiders27
9Baltimore Ravens15.725Minnesota Vikings28.1
10Buffalo Bills17.226Dallas Cowboys29.9
11Cleveland Browns17.727Los Angeles Rams30.4
12Seattle Seahawks17.828Atlanta Falcons31.2
13New York Jets1829Green Bay Packers31.3
14New England Patriots19.430Jacksonville Jaguars42.3
15Kansas City Chiefs19.831Carolina Panthers42.6
16Tennessee Titans19.832Arizona Cardinals43.2

Fantasy Analysis

Washington’s defensive line is fucking legit. Look, I get that the Eagles didn’t have Miles Sanders, but that front 7 gets after it! Start RBs at your own risk against this team as they may not let too many holes open up.

The other teams that are at the top of this list that will probably stay there are: Chargers, Steelers, and Saints. All three of those teams pose threats to opposing RBs scoring a lot of fantasy points.

I fully expect the Patriots to move on up to the top 10 at some point. They only allowed 3.1 YPC to the RBs for the Dolphins and the TD scored by Howard skewed their points against this week. Regardless of what you see here, Bill has a plan, and that plan will most likely limit the fantasy success of your RBs.

The Rams played Zeke and they still have Aaron Donald, so don’t expect 30+ points from your RBs against LA week in and week out.

The Chiefs run defense is awful, but they almost always put teams in a negative game script so start your RBs with caution against them. This week in particular is a safe week to start Austin Ekeler. He is the primary rushing option, but also the primary passing down option as well. Even in a negative game script Ekeler should see at least a 65% snap share.

Be Wary

Alvin Kamara scored two TDs against the Bucs and is one of the best two way RBs in all of football. Tampa’s run defense is going to be great again, so don’t fire up your RBs expecting anything other than a TD dependent RB2 every week. Kamara and Latavius Murray averaged a godawful 2.4 YPC and Kamara’s day was saved by the 2 TDs.

The Bucs rush D picked up right where they left off in 2019.
Latavius Murray received 15 carries in week 1, but the Bucs were able to hold him to 3.2 YPC.

The Eagles surrendered almost 21 fantasy points to the Washington RBs, but don’t be fooled. Ron Rivera started Peyton Barber on his fantasy team and made sure he got in the end zone twice. Gibson had some success, but for the most part, even a banged up Eagles front 7 showed that they will not be giving up huge games to RBs this year.

All the other teams had weird games or big plays make their scores lopsided, but for the most part everyone else will stay in roughly the same tier they were in this week.

Wide Receivers

Combining WR points allowed by a defense doesn’t always tell the whole story. When you have a team like the Raiders where a TE is their main target, it will seem like Carolina did a great job slowing down the LV WRs. That is usually not the case, so starting next week I will start breaking it down to WR1, WR2, and so on.

*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros 0.5 PPR*

1Arizona Cardinals6.117San Francisco 49ers28
2Miami Dolphins14.918Los Angeles Rams28
3Baltimore Ravens15.419New Orleans Saints29.1
4Tennessee Titans1620Cleveland Browns33.9
5Tampa Bay Buccaneers16.221Houston Texans35.4
6Cincinnati Bengals16.722Pittsburgh Steelers35.6
7Washington Football Team17.523Las Vegas Raiders37.7
8New England Patriots18.124Atlanta Falcons38.4
9Philadelphia Eagles18.225Indianapolis Colts38.4
10Los Angeles Chargers18.326Kansas City Chiefs38.6
11Carolina Panthers21.427Green Bay Packers38.7
12Jacksonville Jaguars23.128Detroit Lions40.9
13Buffalo Bills24.729New York Jets42.2
14Dallas Cowboys26.730New York Giants44.7
15Chicago Bears2731Seattle Seahawks65.5
16Denver Broncos27.732Minnesota Vikings68.4

Fantasy Analysis

Like I already said, Week 1 games can be an anomaly. Absolutely start your WRs every single week with confidence against the Arizona Cardinals. San Francisco was without their top two WRs so naturally, their WRs did not have much fantasy success. I know, Patrick Peterson is usually a shadow CB, but this team is going to be in shootouts all year long and WRs should have plenty of success against them.

Miami may actually not be a joke this year. A healthy Xavien Howard was joined by Byron Jones to create probably the most underrated CB duo in the league. The Pats only threw 19 passes, so start your WRs against the Dolphins, but temper expectations until we learn otherwise.

The Washington Football team faced a decimated Eagles team and held their injured WRs in check. Alshon didn’t play, Jalen Reagor was at less than 100% and we’re still not sure what happened to DeSean Jackson. Start your WRs confidently against Washington.

San Francisco surrendered 28 points to Arizona WRs this week, but DeAndre Hopkins accounted for almost 80% of those points. This is where my breakdowns next week will come in handy. They silenced Christian Kirk who had 0.5 points, and even with two of their top CBs going down this week, this is a solid secondary who will occasionally lock up opposing WRs.

Must Starts

Start WRs 1 and 2 every week against the Jets, Vikings, Lions (until Okudah comes back), and Packers. Of these teams, Green Bay has a “shutdown” corner in Jaire Alexander, but he can be had as Adam Thielen found out this week.

Tight Ends

Tight Ends are tricky when considering what teams give up to them. Some teams do not use their TEs while other teams have a TE as their number 1 target. This position will be easier to get a gauge on when we get to weeks 4 or 5.

*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros 0.5 PPR*

1Minnesota Vikings1.717Jacksonville Jaguars9.4
2Indianpolis Colts1.818Arizona Cardinals9.5
3Miami Dolphins319Detroit Lions10
4San Francisco 49ers3.120Tampa Bay Buccaneers10.5
5New York Giants3.121Cincinnati Bengals11.3
6Los Angeles Rams3.322Philadelphia Eagles11.7
7Las Vegas Raiders3.523Atlanta Falcons13.6
8New York Jets3.624New Orleans Saints13.7
9New England Patriots4.525Houston Texans13.8
10Buffalo Bills4.726Kansas City Chiefs14
11Seattle Seahawks5.327Chicago Bears14.1
12Green Bay Packers5.428Baltimore Ravens16
13Pittsburgh Steelers6.429Tennessee Titans17
14Dallas Cowboys6.730Denver Broncos19.7
15Los Angeles Chargers7.731Cleveland Browns21.6
16Carolina Panthers8.232Washington Football Team29.4

Fantasy Analysis

The Minnesota Vikings are the king of stopping TEs after week 1. It won’t last much longer. Green Bay did not work their TEs into the game plan pretty much at all after accounting for only 3 targets. Rodgers was too busy throwing darts at Davante Adams.

The Colts have a solid group of LBs and Safeties that can help contain TEs so I do not believe that this is an anomaly. Be cautious starting your TE against this Indy defense.

Arizona went from DEAD last in 2019 to the middle of the pack in Week 1. A mirage. George Kittle got hurt on an ugly play and I have no doubt that he would have put up another crazy stat line had he stayed healthy. Again, dial up your TE every week until Arizona proves me wrong.

Don’t Get Cute

Washington got absolutely roasted by the two TEs for the Eagles. Goedert and Ertz both found paydirt, and this will be a theme going forward for the Football Team. They will probably not creep up to higher than 20th on this list all season. Start your TEs against the Football Team.

Like I said, TEs are really the toughest position to gauge when it comes to fantasy points allowed. More in-depth analysis of this position will start to come as trends start to occur.

Make sure to follow us on twitter for all of our content that we will be banging out for the rest of the season.

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