Week 1, and along with it, fantasy football, is officially in the books and life seems to be about as normal as it has been for the entirety of 2020. Football is back which means the Browns and Jets look like abominations again, while the Chiefs and Ravens look like the class of the NFL. I would have like to have gotten this content out sooner, but it has been a busy week. Starting next week we will have content on the following days:
Tuesday-Waiver Wire Targets
Thursday-Fantasy Points Against by Position
We missed on the first two this week, but we are coming in fucking hot in Week 2. We are also going to be dropping TWO podcast episodes per week starting after Week 2 so make sure to check those out wherever you listen to your pods.
*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros.*
|1||New England Patriots||8.44||17||Denver Broncos||19.36|
|2||Cincinnati Bengals||9.02||18||Las Vegas Raiders||19.4|
|3||Baltimore Ravens||10.86||19||Indianapolis Colts||20.82|
|4||Dallas Cowboys||11.5||20||New York Giants||22.06|
|5||Buffalo Bills||12.2||21||New Orleans Saints||22.46|
|6||Philadelphia Eagles||12.82||22||Green Bay Packers||22.76|
|7||Tennessee Titans||13.14||23||Kansas City Chiefs||22.82|
|8||Carolina Panthers||13.56||24||Detroit Lions||24.28|
|9||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||14.4||25||Seattle Seahawks||24.9|
|10||Washington Football Team||15||26||Miami Dolphins||25.7|
|11||Jacksonville Jaguars||16.82||27||Houston Texans||26.44|
|12||Chicago Bears||17.18||28||San Francisco 49ers||27.3|
|13||Los Angeles Chargers||17.32||29||Cleveland Browns||27.5|
|14||Los Angeles Rams||17.64||30||New York Jets||28.18|
|15||Arizona Cardinals||19.26||31||Minnesota Vikings||30.76|
|16||Pittsburgh Steelers||19.36||32||Atlanta Falcons||31.78|
One of my biggest takeaways from this table is that Atlanta’s defense may be worse than any of us ever thought. Pete Carroll finally decided to let Russ cook and look what happened. He is your QB1 for Week 1. Any QB against the Falcons is going to be a very streamable every week option, if not a top 10 play every single week.
The Patriots and Ravens are right where I expected them to be, and that is where you will see them for most of the season. Bill still has some tricks up his sleeves, so watch out for that defense all season long.
Since the Ravens traded for Marcus Peters, they have been one of the best pass defenses in the league, especially for fantasy purposes. They get teams in negative game scripts and they still don’t allow any garbage time stats.
Start your QB expecting 25+ points against the Jets every single fucking week. Josh Allen would have been QB1 overall had it not been for his two fumbles. The Jets secondary is rough, the pass rush is non- existent and the linebackers are slow.
Minnesota’s secondary is bad, but the defense as a whole is not as bad as Aaron Rodgers made them look on Sunday. I don’t expect Minnesota to be top 10 against QBs, but don’t start your QB expecting 25+ points every week.
Dallas and Carolina are at the top of this list, but they will not stay there very long. In both games, they got dominated on the ground and the QBs were not asked to do much. You can confidently start your QB every week against both of these defenses.
Seattle gave up the 8th most points to their opposing QB in Week 1, but don’t expect that on a week to week basis. There may not be a better garbage time QB in the history of the NFL than Matt Ryan. About
2/3 of his yards and both of his touchdowns came with the Falcons trailing by 2+ scores.
Fantasy Points for RBs in Week 1 always need to be taken with a grain of salt. So that means, we need to take what defenses did against RBs with a grain of salt.
*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros 0.5 PPR*
|1||Washington Football Team||9.6||17||Philadelphia Eagles||20.7|
|2||Los Angeles Chargers||10.4||18||Cincinnati Bengals||21.6|
|3||Indianapolis Colts||11.1||19||Miami Dolphins||23.3|
|4||Pittsburgh Steelers||11.6||20||Houston Texans||24|
|5||New Orleans Saints||12.3||21||Chiacgo Bears||24.1|
|6||Detroit Lions||13.6||22||San Francisco 49ers||25.5|
|7||New York Giants||14.8||23||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||25.6|
|8||Denver Broncos||15.6||24||Las Vegas Raiders||27|
|9||Baltimore Ravens||15.7||25||Minnesota Vikings||28.1|
|10||Buffalo Bills||17.2||26||Dallas Cowboys||29.9|
|11||Cleveland Browns||17.7||27||Los Angeles Rams||30.4|
|12||Seattle Seahawks||17.8||28||Atlanta Falcons||31.2|
|13||New York Jets||18||29||Green Bay Packers||31.3|
|14||New England Patriots||19.4||30||Jacksonville Jaguars||42.3|
|15||Kansas City Chiefs||19.8||31||Carolina Panthers||42.6|
|16||Tennessee Titans||19.8||32||Arizona Cardinals||43.2|
Washington’s defensive line is fucking legit. Look, I get that the Eagles didn’t have Miles Sanders, but that front 7 gets after it! Start RBs at your own risk against this team as they may not let too many holes open up.
The other teams that are at the top of this list that will probably stay there are: Chargers, Steelers, and Saints. All three of those teams pose threats to opposing RBs scoring a lot of fantasy points.
I fully expect the Patriots to move on up to the top 10 at some point. They only allowed 3.1 YPC to the RBs for the Dolphins and the TD scored by Howard skewed their points against this week. Regardless of what you see here, Bill has a plan, and that plan will most likely limit the fantasy success of your RBs.
The Rams played Zeke and they still have Aaron Donald, so don’t expect 30+ points from your RBs against LA week in and week out.
The Chiefs run defense is awful, but they almost always put teams in a negative game script so start your RBs with caution against them. This week in particular is a safe week to start Austin Ekeler. He is the primary rushing option, but also the primary passing down option as well. Even in a negative game script Ekeler should see at least a 65% snap share.
Alvin Kamara scored two TDs against the Bucs and is one of the best two way RBs in all of football. Tampa’s run defense is going to be great again, so don’t fire up your RBs expecting anything other than a TD dependent RB2 every week. Kamara and Latavius Murray averaged a godawful 2.4 YPC and Kamara’s day was saved by the 2 TDs.
The Eagles surrendered almost 21 fantasy points to the Washington RBs, but don’t be fooled. Ron Rivera started Peyton Barber on his fantasy team and made sure he got in the end zone twice. Gibson had some success, but for the most part, even a banged up Eagles front 7 showed that they will not be giving up huge games to RBs this year.
All the other teams had weird games or big plays make their scores lopsided, but for the most part everyone else will stay in roughly the same tier they were in this week.
Combining WR points allowed by a defense doesn’t always tell the whole story. When you have a team like the Raiders where a TE is their main target, it will seem like Carolina did a great job slowing down the LV WRs. That is usually not the case, so starting next week I will start breaking it down to WR1, WR2, and so on.
*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros 0.5 PPR*
|1||Arizona Cardinals||6.1||17||San Francisco 49ers||28|
|2||Miami Dolphins||14.9||18||Los Angeles Rams||28|
|3||Baltimore Ravens||15.4||19||New Orleans Saints||29.1|
|4||Tennessee Titans||16||20||Cleveland Browns||33.9|
|5||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||16.2||21||Houston Texans||35.4|
|6||Cincinnati Bengals||16.7||22||Pittsburgh Steelers||35.6|
|7||Washington Football Team||17.5||23||Las Vegas Raiders||37.7|
|8||New England Patriots||18.1||24||Atlanta Falcons||38.4|
|9||Philadelphia Eagles||18.2||25||Indianapolis Colts||38.4|
|10||Los Angeles Chargers||18.3||26||Kansas City Chiefs||38.6|
|11||Carolina Panthers||21.4||27||Green Bay Packers||38.7|
|12||Jacksonville Jaguars||23.1||28||Detroit Lions||40.9|
|13||Buffalo Bills||24.7||29||New York Jets||42.2|
|14||Dallas Cowboys||26.7||30||New York Giants||44.7|
|15||Chicago Bears||27||31||Seattle Seahawks||65.5|
|16||Denver Broncos||27.7||32||Minnesota Vikings||68.4|
Like I already said, Week 1 games can be an anomaly. Absolutely start your WRs every single week with confidence against the Arizona Cardinals. San Francisco was without their top two WRs so naturally, their WRs did not have much fantasy success. I know, Patrick Peterson is usually a shadow CB, but this team is going to be in shootouts all year long and WRs should have plenty of success against them.
Miami may actually not be a joke this year. A healthy Xavien Howard was joined by Byron Jones to create probably the most underrated CB duo in the league. The Pats only threw 19 passes, so start your WRs against the Dolphins, but temper expectations until we learn otherwise.
The Washington Football team faced a decimated Eagles team and held their injured WRs in check. Alshon didn’t play, Jalen Reagor was at less than 100% and we’re still not sure what happened to DeSean Jackson. Start your WRs confidently against Washington.
San Francisco surrendered 28 points to Arizona WRs this week, but DeAndre Hopkins accounted for almost 80% of those points. This is where my breakdowns next week will come in handy. They silenced Christian Kirk who had 0.5 points, and even with two of their top CBs going down this week, this is a solid secondary who will occasionally lock up opposing WRs.
Start WRs 1 and 2 every week against the Jets, Vikings, Lions (until Okudah comes back), and Packers. Of these teams, Green Bay has a “shutdown” corner in Jaire Alexander, but he can be had as Adam Thielen found out this week.
Tight Ends are tricky when considering what teams give up to them. Some teams do not use their TEs while other teams have a TE as their number 1 target. This position will be easier to get a gauge on when we get to weeks 4 or 5.
*All fantasy points are according to FantasyPros 0.5 PPR*
|1||Minnesota Vikings||1.7||17||Jacksonville Jaguars||9.4|
|2||Indianpolis Colts||1.8||18||Arizona Cardinals||9.5|
|3||Miami Dolphins||3||19||Detroit Lions||10|
|4||San Francisco 49ers||3.1||20||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||10.5|
|5||New York Giants||3.1||21||Cincinnati Bengals||11.3|
|6||Los Angeles Rams||3.3||22||Philadelphia Eagles||11.7|
|7||Las Vegas Raiders||3.5||23||Atlanta Falcons||13.6|
|8||New York Jets||3.6||24||New Orleans Saints||13.7|
|9||New England Patriots||4.5||25||Houston Texans||13.8|
|10||Buffalo Bills||4.7||26||Kansas City Chiefs||14|
|11||Seattle Seahawks||5.3||27||Chicago Bears||14.1|
|12||Green Bay Packers||5.4||28||Baltimore Ravens||16|
|13||Pittsburgh Steelers||6.4||29||Tennessee Titans||17|
|14||Dallas Cowboys||6.7||30||Denver Broncos||19.7|
|15||Los Angeles Chargers||7.7||31||Cleveland Browns||21.6|
|16||Carolina Panthers||8.2||32||Washington Football Team||29.4|
The Minnesota Vikings are the king of stopping TEs after week 1. It won’t last much longer. Green Bay did not work their TEs into the game plan pretty much at all after accounting for only 3 targets. Rodgers was too busy throwing darts at Davante Adams.
The Colts have a solid group of LBs and Safeties that can help contain TEs so I do not believe that this is an anomaly. Be cautious starting your TE against this Indy defense.
Arizona went from DEAD last in 2019 to the middle of the pack in Week 1. A mirage. George Kittle got hurt on an ugly play and I have no doubt that he would have put up another crazy stat line had he stayed healthy. Again, dial up your TE every week until Arizona proves me wrong.
Don’t Get Cute
Washington got absolutely roasted by the two TEs for the Eagles. Goedert and Ertz both found paydirt, and this will be a theme going forward for the Football Team. They will probably not creep up to higher than 20th on this list all season. Start your TEs against the Football Team.
Like I said, TEs are really the toughest position to gauge when it comes to fantasy points allowed. More in-depth analysis of this position will start to come as trends start to occur.